15.10.2019.

The New Understanding and Ways to Strengthen Multilateral Strategic Stability

Sergei A. Karaganov, Dmitry V. Suslov

With the support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation and the State Duma Committee on International Affairs; in collaboration with the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy

This report is based on the results of a situational analysis directed by Sergei A. Karaganov and held at the Russian Foreign Ministry on May 21, 2019. The session participants included leading Russian independent and government’s experts in security and arms control issues, including new-generation experts.1 See Appendix 1 for the list of the participants – independent experts, who did not object against being listed.
The participants disagreed on many issues, thus revealing overall confusion in the expert and political community and a clear split over approaches towards strategic stability and nuclear arms control. There are those who prefer continuing the approach established during the Cold War, and those who call for a revision of the previous understanding of strategic stability and ways to ensure it, taking into account the fundamental changes that have taken place and continue to occur in the military-strategic situation. These disagreements are stated in the report below. There is just as much, or maybe even more, confusion and disaccord among foreign experts.
The report’s conclusion and recommendations are debatable. We propose to discuss them with a wider circle of Russian experts and with representatives of the Chinese and the US expert communities. A preliminary version of the report was discussed with American experts at a closed session with narrow participation of the Working Group on the Future of the US-Russia Relations (project of the Higher School of Economics and Harvard University), which took place in Helsinki on July 5 – 6, sponsored by the Valdai International Discussion Club and Carnegie Corporation of New York.
The report contains, above all, the conclusions made by its authors who bear full responsibility for its content. They would like to thank the participants of the situational analysis session and of the Helsinki session of the Working Group on the Future of the US-Russia Relations for their observations, suggestions and ideas, which have also been reflected in the report.

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