Task Forces

08.04.2019.

GLOBAL TRENDS TO 2030

CHALLENGES AND CHOICES FOR EUROPE

AN INTER-INSTITUTIONAL EU PROJECT

Florence Gaub

Florence Gaub is the Deputy Director of the European Union Institute for Security Studies
(EUISS) and is the lead author of this ESPAS report Global Trends to 2030: Challenges and
Choices for Europe. In addition to overseeing the EUISS' research activities, Florence works
on strategic foresight, geopolitics as well as the Middle East and North Africa. Florence
is widely published, and her two latest publications include The Cauldron: NATO’s Libya
campaign and Guardians of the Arab State: Why militaries intervene in politics.
Previously employed at NATO Defence College, she was educated at Munich University,
SciencesPo, the Sorbonne, and holds a PhD from Humboldt University Berlin.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Foreword: the future is now

Introduction: between prediction and foresight

Welcome to 2030: the mega-trends

We are hotter
We are more, but where?
We live in cities
We continue to grow economically
We need more energy
We are highly connected
We are poly-nodal

On the road to the future: the catalysts

Trade will increase
Food and water will have to be watched
Warfare will change
Terrorism will remain
Technology will sprint ahead
People will move
Populists will try

Time to decide: the game-changers

How do we save the planet?
How do we improve ageing?
How do we manage new technologies?
How do we position Europe in the World?
How do we manage conflict?
How do we protect democracy at home?
How do we reach equality?

Action and inaction: two scenarios for 2030

If we take action
If we do not take action

Conclusion: foresight does not replace the future

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